Golden years Review and Summary of prices
Jan 03, 2012
A market review ten years of gold price movements
Review and Summary
1, the direction of gold prices simple and clear – shock up. Do not neglect or ignore due to its simplicity and its value! Simple and clear market direction is that we develop effective trading strategies and to ensure stable and reliable trading system. China A-share market anywhere to be found in any stock, any futures or even any foreign currency transactions are difficult to find a variety of transactions such excellent properties.
through years of tracking gold prices and gold spot market review we found that there are two notable features:
1, (wave II) came seven months (wave d) If also 7 months limit should be adjusted to at least March 2012. Note that, according to past experience four waves in the form of adjustment is often more complex than the two waves, and take longer to adjust.
from can also be seen in Figure -2:
253.55 778.54 * 3.236 = 2772.91 $;
253.55 778.54 * 5.236 = 4329.99 $;
according to the law of four waves are not waves wave should fall into the range, so it can be expected, (wave 4) adjustment of not less than the lowest point (wave I) highs 1032.09 $ / oz. Other methods (wave 4) adjustment of the lowest point in 1364 should be $ / oz. In summary, (wave IV), the adjustment range should 1364– 1920.30 $ / oz between the time not earlier than the end of March 2012.
(2), light (wave III) is about (wave A) of 1.618 times, have to show a good regularity, so it can be expected (wave V) and (wave A) 2.618 times the relationship. Based on past experience, with a variety of leveraged margin trading goods are often higher than the price of five waves, three waves are much more intense ferocity, gold is no exception. So in addition to expected (wave V) and (wave A) 2.618 times the relationship, but also can be expected (wave V) and (wave I) and the highest 6.854 3.236,4.236,5.236 multiple relationships, so the next (wave V) the target position may be, respectively:
(wave III) is the starting point of 24 October 2008 of 680.80 $ / oz, the end is August 23, 2011 of 1911.80 $ / oz, which lasted 34 months out of the 1231 $ upside.
Figure -1 can also be seen:
3, (Wave Three) $ 1231 up space, or about (wave A) 778.54 $ 1.581 times the amplitude of space, just generally about 1.618 times.
-1 can be seen from the figure completely out of the last golden years since the last downturn since the 1980s trend, started a round of refreshing the bull market. If February 20, 2001 gold lowest price 253.55 $ / oz as a starting point, you can very clearly see the gold out of the brackets wave level (wave a), (wave B) and (wave III), is currently running should be (wave IV).
Figure -2 intercept the gold since October 24, 2008 to December 26, 2011 to go on-line map.
These are the golden years of market do a little review and summary and future trend analysis and determine to do a little bit, but the market run, after all, is not standardized by the standard factors and form factors, we can use standard Technical analysis means for the future operation of a certain price point and time to predict, but we can not predict today world so many hot spots that day, what would misfires, and the degree of conflict, then it could cannon ring, any element will match for tons of gold. At this time all standardized technical analysis will be broken for some time, but this is precisely the significance of stop-loss.
5, although the September 5, 2011 gold hit 1920.30 $ / oz a new high, but should still adjust the wave range. (Wave III) is completed, it should be running (wave IV), but the four waves in a platform-type multi-adjust the wave form, the above should be adjusted diffusion wave nature of the platform. So, August 23, 2011 of 1911.80 $ / oz is still the (wave III) in the end, is the (wave IV) starting point.
(wave II) is the starting point of 17 March 2008 of 1032.09 $ / ounce, the end is October 24, 2008 of 680.80 $ / oz, with seven months callback 351.29 $.
future market outlook:
1, the internal structure of wave a slightly non-standard, which waves a-4 retracement of wave one has a little into the range of -1, but with the lever in spot trading margin is allowed.
(1), we can see from the previous analysis (wave A) rose 778.54 $, (wave C) up $ 1231, (wave III) is about (wave A) 1.618 times. As a result, we can (wave C) as is the extension, then, according to the law is likely wave (wave V) and (wave A) and so long. Therefore, (wave V) target level should be in the (wave 4) adjustment of $ 778.54 plus the end.
253.55 778.54 * 4.236 = 3551.45 $;
further downward) adjustment of the waves, thus adjusting the compound and the triangular wave form completed (wave c) adjustments.
253.55 778.54 * 2.618 = 2291.77 $;
3, the fifth wave five -1 -3 waves and wave five is the fifth wave failure to end the rising slope triangle, that the rising wedge in the form of morphological to complete.
from the fundamental situation, whether it is a few years ago the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis or the U.S. debt crisis and the current debt crisis in Europe, I think the most essential source of the current law should be the global currency system is a problem. In this case, the future price of gold (wave V) may be the next target position on the global monetary system and the problems of how people confidence on this issue. Contemplated by the current global monetary situation, we have every reason to expect gold (wave V) the high price point, at least, (wave V) leapt to 3000 $ / oz is not surprising.
2, in (wave three) that is December 4, 2009 1226 big top, through the three-wave ABC – abc – ABC (down – up –
4, the first wave of five-5 five waves, that waves five -5-5 is to extend the wave form.
253.55 778.54 * 6.854 = 5589.66 $.
1, although we set the (wave a) the starting point is 2001 February 20 of 253.55 $ / ounce, while gold prices rose from the real force in August 2005, breaking the previous high of 456.75 $ / oz later, if this calculation, the (wave a) the end of March 2008 17, lasted about 32 months, and (wave III) at 34 months with roughly the same.
2, we can see from Figure -1 waves driven by the price of gold just finished the (waves III), to be sure the back there are exciting (wave V). (wave V) of the target can be predicted, there are two basic ideas:
2, from a technical analysis point of view, the market price of gold is almost perfect – prices go was a textbook example of the general; price to go with the scalpel as accurate.
from the time point (wave V) should be not less than 34 months to run, that is about three years.
II Summary and Outlook
(wave a) the starting point is February 20, 2001 of 253.55 $ / oz, the end is March 17, 2008 to 1032.09 $ / oz, $ 778.54 out of seven years of upside.
intercept the gold from 1999 to December 2011 the weekly chart to go.
2, (wave II) retracement of the 351.29 $, accounting for (wave A) 778.54 $ volatility of 45.12%, roughly the same (wave a) 50% of the callback.